The issue of Blair's leadership will dominate discussion

The House Magazine*, partenaire britannique de La Revue Parlementaire. By Sarah Southerton, Commissioning Editor of The House Magazine


Just as Nicholas Sarkozy is campaigning to replace Jacques Chirac as the French Right's presidential candidate, so the anticipation that British prime minister Tony Blair will shortly leave 10 Downing Street for good is dominating political debate at Westminster, and is likely to do so for the next year as his party prepares for a leadership contest.

After winning two successive general elections with massive majorities, in 2004 Tony Blair confirmed that his third poll as Labour Party leader would be his last. Waiting in the wings is British finance minister Gordon Brown, seen as Blair's successor for most, if not all, of Labour's nine years in office thus far. While like Sarkozy, Brown's ambitions have been well known for some time, he has been reluctant to move against Blair: he is now Britain's longest serving finance minister, though with arguably more powers than his successors ever had. Texte/Text Tony Blair's popularity within his party has certainly waned since he swept to power in 1997. Once its saviour, ending 18 years of rule by a Conservative Party led first by Margaret Thatcher and then John Major, a number of his policies - particularly the collaboration between the public and private sectors in the funding of new schools and hospitals - have proved unpopular with some on his own side, some of whom were, arguably, against his leadership from the start. But it is the Iraq war that has had the severest impact upon Tony Blair's premiership. Just like his ally across the Atlantic George W Bush, the prime minister has seen his approval ratings among voters fall. The start of the war led some in Blair's ministerial team to resign their posts in protest, and caused normally loyal Labour MPs to question their leader's judgement.

But will Gordon Brown's reluctance to move against Blair prove his undoing? While some in the Labour Party have despaired at the policies pursued and looked to the chancellor as their new saviour, others are starting to wonder whether crowning him leader will make any difference at all. After all, he has been involved in the controversial economic and social policies. And although he seemed reluctant to appear in the press in support of the military campaign in Iraq, nevertheless he was hardly vocal in any opposition he may have had to it. Would installing Brown in 10 Downing Street really lead to a reversal of the government's policies so disliked among some Labour MPs? Would he really withdraw British troops from Basra? Although there is a letter urging Tony Blair to set a timetable for the handover of power from him to Brown written and signed by once-loyal Labour MPs, only one MP - John McDonnell - has said he will stand against the chancellor in a future leadership contest, although a number of names of the few Blair loyalists are regularly bandied about as possible challengers from that wing of the party. However, amid pressure from within the party and eight resignations in one day - of a junior minister and seven ministerial aides - Blair made a public statement insisting that while he will not name a date for his departure, he will be gone by this time next year.

As the Labour Party gathers in the northwest city of Manchester for their annual conference, the issue of Blair's leadership dominates discussion. Looking forward to the year ahead, it is unlikely that discussion will be dominated by anything else. Sarah Southerton, Commissioning Editor Of The House Magazine

* The House Magazine a été créé en 1976 par un groupe de députés afin de traiter et débattre de l'ordre du jour parlementaire de manière impartiale mais incisive. Il est depuis 30 ans l'hebdomadaire des parlementaires britanniques.