Bad Weather for Tony Blair

The House Magazine, partenaire britannique de La Revue Parlementaire. Richard Hall, directeur éditorial


Tony Blair's extensive cabinet reshuffle last month heralded the beginning of the final phase of his premiership. The objective for Blair's last period in office is to lock in his domestic legacy of reformed public services and a refashioned criminal justice system. Other big issues on the political agenda that new ministers will have to grapple with include the UK's future energy supply and pensions reform. However, very poor results in May's local council elections provoked a renewed bout of speculation that Blair would be forced to leave office sooner than the 2008/9 date alluded to when, in 2004, he announced his intention not to stand for a fourth term as prime minister.

In the aftermath of the local elections, Blair's long-time heir apparent, chancellor Gordon Brown, toured the television studios to send a coded warning to Blair not to cling on to power for too long and to avoid a repeat of the bloody end of Margaret Thatcher's premiership in 1990, which caused the Conservative Party damage that it is still repairing today.

Blair and Brown have long been feuding about the succession, with Blair reportedly going back on private assurances of the date of his departure from Downing Street. And the local election results provided the Brown camp with the opportunity to increase the pressure on Blair to publicly set a timetable for his resignation. Blair has ruled this out, arguing that if he publishes a use-by date then the machinery of government will cease to operate as everyone prepares for the incoming prime minister. Blair is desperate to turn the focus away from the Labour Party's internal intrigue and towards the policy agenda that he was elected on just over 12 months ago - and that will help complete that all-important legacy.

In needing this, he shares an interest with Gordon Brown. Although it is not certain that Brown would win the ensuing contest, he is the overwhelming favourite to take over at 10 Downing Street. It would be of no service to his premiership should he take over the leadership of a Labour Party riddled with internal feuding after a Thatcher-like regicide. History shows that parties who squabble amongst themselves and take their eye off the voters' agenda are always punished at the ballot box. Added to Labour's woes are signs that the Conservative Party, under David Cameron, is ready to mount a serious challenge to Labour after 14 years in the polling doldrums. The Tories are enjoying a significant and sustained advantage in the opinion polls for the first time since Tony Blair took over the Labour Party. Cameron's strategy of softening the party's image and appealing to the centre-ground 'Middle England' voters by voicing less hard-edged sentiments on social issues and the environment, appears to be working.

Since his election to the leadership of the Labour Party in 1994, Blair has enjoyed good political weather. The early days of New Labour coincided with a period of unprecedented internal warfare within the Conservative government. Once inside Downing Street, Blair was then faced by unpopular leaders of the opposition who made little headway in addressing the public's deep-seated distrust of the Conservative Party. But the weather appears to be changing. Disappointment with the Labour government, as expressed through the local election results, has coincided with a revival in Conservative fortunes. Blair is struggling to fight through the controversy surrounding his leaving of office, and is thus-far unable to refocus debate on the issues concerning voters. The odds on the final phase of the Blair era lasting far into 2007 are lengthening by the week.

* The House Magazine a été créé en 1976 par un groupe de députes afin de traiter et débattre de l'ordre du jour parlementaire de manière impartiale mais incisive. Il est depuis 30 ans l'hebdomadaire des parlementaires britanniques.



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