La Revue Parlementaire s'est associée à son homologue anglais
The House Magazine* pour une analyse de l'actualité britannique.
Son directeur éditorial Richard Hall évoque pour nous les nouvelles
figures politiques anglaises.
Until a few months ago, the British political landscape had
remained largely undisturbed since 1995. In the mid-nineties
the Labour Party, under the new leadership of Tony Blair, enjoyed
a strong lead in the opinion polls. Trust in the governing Conservative
Party was collapsing after the 1992 Exchange Rate Mechanism
crisis, when the UK was ejected from the ERM and interest rates
soared. And the Liberal Democrats, chiming with the public mood
of hostility to the Conservatives, abandoned their policy of
equidistance between the two major parties, and worked with
Labour to beat the Tories.
The 1997 general election saw a change in government, but the
next eight years still saw a consistent Labour ascendancy and
the Conservatives - despite changing their leadership three
times - stuck at 30 per cent in the polls. But the tectonic
plates of British politics are finally shifting. The first indication
of change was when prime minister Tony Blair declared in autumn
2004 that he would stand for a third but not a fourth term in
office. After more than a decade of Blair dominance, voters
were given a glimpse of life without him. Next came the 2005
general election, when Labour's parliamentary majority was slashed
from 160 to 60 - and Blair's left-wing rebels in the parliamentary
party were emboldened. The prime minister's ability to push
his agenda through parliament was curtailed, as shown by the
government's Commons defeat over anti-terror legislation.
In December, the Conservatives elected David Cameron as their
new leader. His first month has seen slick PR and the ditching
of Tory policies on health, education and immigration. Instead
of following the right-wing course of his predecessors, Cameron
has tacked to the political centre ground. But can he convince
voters of the sincerity of this shift, and can he take his party
with him?
Cameron's leadership gave the Tories a boost in the opinion
polls, showing that voters are warming to the charismatic young
leader. Labour's high command sees Cameron as a threat to their
hegemony. Many on Labour's left would like to see the party
move away from the centre-ground and implement 'real' Labour
policies on tax and government spending. The big question is
whether Blair, and his likely successor Gordon Brown, can resist
this shift and maintain their position on the centre-ground.
Into this mix comes the Liberal Democrats. If Cameron's polling
figures are replicated at the next general election, neither
Labour or the Conservatives will have a majority in parliament
- and coalition talks will commence. Vehemently against the
Iraq war and the government's anti-terror measures that restrict
civil liberties, the Liberal Democrats have drifted away from
Labour. Impatient for power, their MPs called time on Charles
Kennedy's leadership - and the party now faces an election to
determine its new leader. The result of this will show whether
the Lib Dems will stay on the overcrowded centreground or drift
left to support a tired Labour government, or right to link
up with the Conservatives.
So big decisions are faced in all three major parties. The choices
that are made will determine how the new landscape of British
politics will actually look.
* The House Magazine a été créé en 1976 par un groupe de
députes afin de traiter et débattre de l'ordre du jour parlementaire
de manière impartiale mais incisive. Il est depuis 30 ans l'hebdomadaire
des parlementaires britanniques.
Imprimer