La Revue Parlementaire s'est associée à son homologue anglais
The House Magazine* pour une analyse de l'actualité britannique.
Son directeur éditorial Richard Hall nous parle du bilan de
la présidence britannique et de la situation inconfortable de
Tony Blair.
In June this year, just before the UK assumed the presidency
of the European Union, prime minister Tony Blair delivered a
powerful speech to the European Parliament. Making a passionate
case for his vision of Europe's future, many commentators rated
this as one of the finest speeches of his premiership.
During the speech, Blair set out the priorities for his six-month
stint in the chair. He said progress towards a budget deal,
negotiations with potential new EU members, and the conduct
of open debate about the future direction of the European project
would be his priorities. With the 'No' votes in the Dutch and
French referendums, constitution- building was off the agenda
and the British were free to concentrate on the nuts-and-bolts
issues, such as the economy and welfare, that they believe matter
to the people of Europe.
After European leaders failed in June to agree a 2007-13 budget,
it became clear that progress on a budget agreement would dominate
the UK's presidency. This week's crucial meeting of foreign
ministers in Brussels will decide whether this will be achieved.
Ahead of the meeting, UK foreign secretary Jack Straw played
down hopes of agreement. The UK is isolated in refusing to countenance
negotiation of its budget rebate - worth £3.5bn a year - unless
major reform of the Common Agricultural Policy is also put on
the table. The rest of Europe sees the rebate, won in 1984 by
Margaret Thatcher, as unfair, given that the UK is, in real
terms, much richer than 20 years ago. And other countries -
notably France, Ireland and Poland - are fighting hard to protect
their large agricultural base. With the UK alone on one side
of the argument, it is highly unlikely that it can successfully
act as an honest broker in the budget debate. The UK will produce
a 'take-it-or-leave-it' budget proposal in December. European
foreign ministers are likely to leave it, and the Austrians
- who take on the mantle of the presidency in January - will
most likely take forward negotiations on the budget deal.
Progress on another priority, discussion of the economic and
social future of Europe, is less tangible. The issue has been
characterised as Blair leading a group of member states - including
former communist nations such as Poland - advocating moves towards
US-style reductions in business regulations and limits on welfare,
against a Franco-German alliance intent on preserving the post-war
economic and social settlement.
The messy aftermath of September's elections in Germany, meaning
incoming Chancellor Angela Merkel having to tone-down some of
her economic reforms, has hardly helped Blair's case. Neither
have the delicate budget negotiations. Blair can hardly hope
for progress on these if he is constantly undermining the economic
outlook of those he is debating. But, with that powerful speech
to MEPs in June, the prime minister has certainly provoked deeper
thought on the EU's future economic and social model. It is
up to member states individually to decide which direction to
take. Progress on this presidency priority will be more helpfully
judged over six years rather than six months.
A significant achievement is the agreement of EU leaders to
open accession talks with Bosnia - 10 years on from the Balkan
war. But historians may well judge the opening of accession
talks with Turkey as this presidency's defining legacy. Should
these talks eventually come to fruition, the welcoming of this
muslim country into the European fold will change the union
forever.
*The House Magazine a été créé en 1976 par un groupe de
députes afin de traiter et débattre de l'ordre du jour parlementaire
de manière impartiale mais incisive. Il est depuis 30 ans l'hebdomadaire
des parlementaires britanniques
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