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La Revue Parlementaire s'associe à son homologue anglais The
House Magazine pour analyser l'actualité britannique.
Europe, and the role Britain should play in the European 'project',
contributed to the downfall of Tony Blair's two predecessors
in Downing Street. Margaret Thatcher's infamous 1988
Bruges speech was seen as the point at which she diverted the
Conservative Party from its broadly pro-European direction.
John Major's premiership was poisoned by bitter exchanges
over European issues.
Last summer Prime Minister Blair performed a dramatic u-turn
and pledged that the UK would hold a referendum before signing
up to the European constitution. Polls consistently indicated
that a large majority of Britons would vote to reject the blueprint,
and Blair faced the likelihood of a poll defeat that would lethally
undermine his authority - already ebbing away after the slashing
of his parliamentary majority at the general election.
Blair has often been seen as a fortunate politician. He won
the Labour leadership after the untimely death of John Smith,
he has faced weak and unpopular Tory opponents, and has enjoyed
benign economic conditions throughout his premiership. His luck
held when the No votes of the people of France and The Netherlands
meant that he could shelve his own referendum plans.
But he is not off the hook yet. Under considerable pressure
from France and Germany, Blair had to fight hard to keep the
UK's £3.2bn budgetary rebate. European leaders' failure to agree
on the Union's 2007-13 budget was widely blamed on the UK.
All this makes for an unpromising build-up to the UK's EU presidency,
which commences on July 1. Blair had hoped to combine the authority
of the EU and G8 presidencies - which the UK will hold simultaneously
- to force richer nations to increase debt-relief and aid to
Africa, and to tackle climate change. Given US intransigence
and prickly relations with key European allies the chances of
progress on this agenda are slim.
But Blair will hope that he can force progress on economic reform
across Europe - which was promised at the Lisbon summit five
years ago, but which has not materialised. He will emphasise
the need for economic competitiveness - and say that this is
the only way in which to generate the wealth that can pay for
key social programmes.
But he is keen not to force Europe to choose between the social
and US-style market models: "That is a false choice. We need
an effective Europe. We need a social approach which boosts
the economic approach. They work together".
However, with the economies of 'Old Europe' still faltering
- and his relations with it strained - Blair seems to be lining
up behind the emerging central and eastern European democracies
whose economic dynamism he admires.
The shelving of the EU constitutional treaty means that Tony
Blair should escape the fate of Thatcher and Major - but the
six-month presidency promises nevertheless to be a stormy, divisive
period.
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