By Richard Hall, Managing editor of The House magazine
These are strange days
for David Cameron.
He leads a broadly
united opposition, facing
an unpopular third-term
government against the
backdrop of an unfolding
recession that many fear
will be as deep and sustained
as anything experienced in Britain
since the war.
Six months ago, having done the heavy
lifting of opposition in his first twoand-a-half years as leader – softening the
party’s image, establishing green credentials,
persuading his party that good
public services are as important as tax
cuts – Cameron appeared to be counting
down to inevitable victory at the
next general election.
Yet since the autumn, when the financial
crisis escalated, Peter Mandelson
returned to the Westminster front line
and Gordon Brown reordered his Downing
Street operation, the leader of the
Conservative Party has struggled to
regain the initiative. The golden Conservative
summer of 2008, burnished by
victory in London, Glasgow and in town
halls across the country, seems distant
as Tory MPs return to Westminster in the
January chill.
There is little early encouragement that
the government’s risky and costly economic
stimulus package is having an
effect. Indeed, ministers even allowed
speculation to grow that the government
will have to take the extraordinary step
of printing more money to inject into the
economy. But voters appear to believe
the government is trying everything to
help them head off the worst of the
downturn, while the passive Tories, out
of step with the national and international
consensus, would leave ordinary
folk to fend for themselves.
Meanwhile Cameron, in the aftermath
of his first successful intervention on the
economy for some time – advocating tax
breaks for savers who have been hit by
tumbling interest rates, paid for by
reductions in spending growth – is dogged
by speculation over the shadow
cabinet futures of Kenneth Clarke and
Alan Duncan.
Some significant issues will take up
time and energy in Parliament over the
forthcoming months – including Heathrow,
employment regulations, the
Middle East, NHS reforms, the Post
Office, schools, and data use – and in
some of these areas the Conservatives
have widely popular positions. But it’s
the economy that offers Cameron the
best chance to regain the initiative.
If the stimulus package and near-zero
interest rates fail to show at least the
first signs of having a positive effect –
and if a further, costly injection of
public funds is required – then the
Tory package of a loan guarantee
scheme, business VAT deferrals, a council
tax freeze, and a tax reduction for
savers, all paid for by cuts in public
spending growth, could soon attract
more widespread support.
Many think that the first part of 2009
will be as good as it gets for the prime
minister, regardless of what happens
to the economy now. If it gets worse,
he gets the blame. If it gets better in
2010, then it’s crisis over and time
for a change.
Tory MPs will be hoping that the emerging
Conservative economic plan can
parry Labour’s charge that they are
the do-nothing party, and that it is
strong enough to withstand the rigours
of a general election. But even if there
is no general election in the first half
of this year, the Conservatives still
have the prospect of significant gains
at local and European elections to
look forward to.
* The House Magazine, partenaire britannique de La Revue
Parlementaire, a été créé en 1976 par un groupe de députés afin
de traiter et débattre de l’ordre du jour parlementaire de manière
impartiale mais incisive. Il est depuis 30 ans l’hebdomadaire des
parlementaires britanniques.
